Today is the 25th, and it is already clear that by the end of the month a positive attitude will remain both at domestic and western sites.
On the eve of the Russian stock exchange and RTS indices finished trading at 3095.84 points (+ 1.60%) and 1287.12 points (+ 2.41%), respectively.
Among the potentially positive aspects I single out – the proximity of the OPEC + meeting (December 1) and the expectation of postponing the agreements on increasing production to a later date. November is already closing with a strong increase in oil, covering the fall of September-October, which promises a further increase. Here, the actual targets are the range of $ 55-60 per barrel, where the resistance line falls to the $ 60 + level, which goes through the peaks of January 2018. and January 2020
Thanksgiving is also coming this week, falling this Thursday. On this day, American sites will be closed, and on Friday they will have a short day (until 15-00 local time). Markets tend to go up on the eve of these holidays.
So there are no obvious signs of a correction or a local reversal until the end of the month. And looking at how the upper Bollinger bands are expanding up the other day, it is not difficult for me to assume that the growth of the markets will continue in December.
In addition, the mark of 3090.42 points according to the Moscow Exchange index is a 100% correction to the fall of August-November, and if it is taken automatically, the next growth target is 161.8% expansion, indicating the level of 3357.35 points. + 8% more to current levels.
Now the movement towards this milestone seems to be something incredible and overly optimistic. But if we are lucky and it is implemented before January 5-20, then why not?
It will turn out to be a very enchanting end to 2020, so to speak, a jump from a deep pit into which this coronavirus drove us.
Technically, by the way, if you draw a support line through the lows of the year – the marks of 2073.87 and 2658.49 points and parallel to it, draw resistance at the highs, then you will get a clear growing channel, the upper border of which also points somewhere in the area of 3355-3360 points. So the goal is quite working and relevant until the end of this year – the beginning of the next.
Two words about dates. January 5, 2020 second round of Senate elections will be held in Georgia. The outcome of these elections will have a direct impact on the political alignment in the United States, until now the Senate was controlled by the Republicans, but whether this advantage will remain in the next year is still a question.
On January 20, the official inauguration of US President Joe Biden will take place. This does not mean that he will immediately rush to curse Russia and impose new sanctions on us, but as this date approaches, the “bullish” fuse in the markets may come to naught.
And a small digression. If I had the opportunity to choose a gift for my birthday – November 30, I would ask for another such November!
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia