The victory of the Democratic Party in the US Senate was another catalyst for the growth of financial markets. This time, gifts for Christmas were received by Russian stock exchange traders, who were able to observe the enchanting end of the week against the background of the rush demand for almost all liquid securities.
The Moscow Exchange Index managed to close the first week of the new year at 3454.82 points (+ 5.04%). The ruble index set a new historical maximum at 3474.66 points, and although I wrote earlier that the zone of 3460-3470 points was obtained as the upper border of the large channel for an increase from March 2020, now it is obvious that it has risen to 3490- 3500 pips.
With the Mosbirzhi index, everything is more or less clear to me, I even admit that there will be a local flight of the 3500 point level until reaching the 261.8% Fibonacci level by a rollback on December 17-21 – the mark of 3558.43 points, since there is not everything ” chips ”have achieved their logical goals.
But I don’t understand yet why the RTS index hangs out among the laggards. That is, the reason is obvious: since the beginning of this year, oil quotes have already added more than 8%, and the US dollar does not want to give up its positions, having firmly seated in the narrowing range of 73.30-75.20 rubles.
In my opinion, with the prospect of Brent oil in the near future, show an increase of about 5-7%, and I am expecting a movement to $ 59-60 per barrel (see the review of December 17), the American currency will inevitably plunge by a couple of rubles down. The target range for the USDRUB pair is the area of 70.40-70.70 rubles. Relevant when the level of 73.30 rubles is broken down.
As soon as there is an exit from the formed consolidation in the dollar, I look forward to catching up movement in the RTS currency index, the targets for which are also located near the upper border of the large channel for an increase – the area of 1515-1530 points. The 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the descent of 1336.58-1039.51 points is also indicated there – this is the level of 1520.17 points.
So our markets may show good growth in the next week or one and a half weeks. However, the closer the date of January 20 is on the calendar, the more careful the bulls need to be.
I would not be surprised if we “mark” Joe Biden’s assumption of the presidency of America with a wave of fixation, playing out the prospect of tougher anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, while the growing trends provide grounds for maintaining “long” positions, we continue the game from the “long”, but in 1-1.5 weeks I will be ready to enter the “cash”.
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia