Even yesterday, looking at the charts of the Russian indices of the Moscow Exchange and the RTS, I understood that the market wants to grow further.
Today’s dynamics of the ruble index, which has already moved upward from the “triangle” figure on the daily chart, and broke through the nearest daily fractal to buy at 3852.83 points, tells us about the desire to rise to 3935-3940 points at the height of the model. Moreover, it should be noted that the peak of the figure itself was also broken upward – the mark of 3865.20 points.
The rollback that we observed before took place in two stages: the descent on June 15-18 and the second part on June 28-29. The decline took place in a zigzag format, almost equivalent, which is typical for a growing market.
So far, the movement is mainly driven by oil and gas securities, which have shown significant gains over the past two days.
But other stocks should also join the bull run, for example, I am waiting for the activation of purchases in banking sector securities. Directly in the shares of “Sberbank” I expect a return to the region of 312 rubles, and in case of breakdown of this line of acceleration in growth.
Another heavyweight, MMC Norilsk Nickel, broke through one of the resistance lines of the folding rule the day before and has every chance of reaching the next two resistances on the horizon of the coming days. These shares may return to the region of 26,000 rubles.
The RTS index also has a “triangle”, but it lags slightly behind its ruble counterpart. The rise of the US dollar up to 73.20 rubles the day before did not allow it to demonstrate a corresponding upward movement, but just within the framework of today’s trading, it clearly rose to the upper border of the model, which completed it.
Now everything depends on the pressure of the “bulls”, today or tomorrow they should direct their forces to attack the level of 1681.18 points, where the nearest daily buy fractal is located. If successful, the RTS index will be able to rise to the 1740-point region.
If we talk about its futures, then the target for it falls somewhere in the region of 171 thousand points.
The most important question is: where does growth come from? I do not know. Like, again coronavirus, voluntary-compulsory vaccination in the country in certain regions. But whether oil will go to $ 80, it may be dear to it there, although I hoped that through a rollback … Or something else.
Speaking of oil (see the review of June 2), I have already said that I see a “triangle” in it, so by the next efforts of OPEC + $ 80 per barrel we can see pretty soon.
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