The current week in the markets cannot be called unambiguous.
On the one hand, thanks to the growth of Brent oil to $ 67-68 per barrel following the OPEC + meeting, our indices look good, and some securities such as Rosneft and Lukoil have been tearing up for the second session in a row. As you know, the ministers of the OPEC + countries, unexpectedly for the market, refused to increase oil production in April by 500 thousand barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia extended its own voluntary restrictions of 1 million barrels per day for another month.
On the other hand, I am very worried about the American stock market, whose sales create preconditions for a more serious decline.
Let’s take a look at the S & P500 index futures chart. I took a weekly cut, since it is on it that you can clearly see that all the growth, which began in March 2020. comes in the form of a larger rising wedge.
Maybe the “wedge” shape would not bother me if the futures did not try to go beyond the support level of the annual uptrend and, accordingly, beyond the support level of this figure.
The first attempt to decline was organized by sellers last week, but then the decline was limited by the level of 3785 points. At the moment, the contract is below this level, and since today is Friday, it has high chances of closing the week below this level. An additional reference point can be the fast moving average EMA21 for weeks, passing through 3688 points. The contract has not dropped below it since the end of October 2020.
It will be completely bad if the futures breaks down the level of 3656.50 points, then the realization of the “double top” reversal pattern with the potential of the move to the zone of 3353.75-3450.75 points is possible.
Even this movement of 8-11% may be enough to bring the Russian indices out of the current growing trends. In the ruble index, the level of support for the uptrend from November 30, 2020. passes through the level of 3350 points, and in the dollar index through the zone of 1390-1395 points.
Earlier, I said that I do not know what could be the catalyst for the descent, but now the American stock market is ideally suited to the role of the activator of such a movement. So I will be watching him closely, as the first signal may appear already at the close of today’s trading, so we will be on the alert.
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia
February statistics here