The Mosbirzhi index ended Thursday trading with a decline to the level of 3799.97 points.
It would seem that nothing special happened yesterday, the decline within 0.8% cannot be called significant, but there are a number of factors that can change the current situation in the coming days.
First of all, I would like to note that after the exit from the “triangle” figure upwards, the ruble index did not reach its target zone in the form of the level of 3940 points. Growth was limited to 3915 points.
After the first descent, which happened on July 8, there were still hopes for the full realization of the “triangle” height upward, since the correction did not go beyond the level of the fast moving average EMA21 the other day, and since this descent looked like a retest of the passed resistance.
At the end of Thursday, the technical picture has changed and the main changes are related to the fact that the long-lasting upward trend (from February 1) may be broken today or tomorrow.
Where do you get these thoughts from?
Let’s look at the RSI and ADX oscillators, which clearly demonstrate this.
On the chart, the RSI oscillator draws a support line for a similar uptrend, which was broken down in yesterday’s trading. As you know, oscillators are leading indicators, which means that the breakout is only a matter of time.
Next, look at the ADX oscillator, where the DI- line is gaining strength and is ready to cross the DI + line. The fact of the crossing will confirm that the sellers have taken over the initiative.
And finally, let’s return to the EMA21 moving average the other day, the last time the index was below it on March 25th. Yes, we see false exits for it, but if the index consolidates below the daily fractals for selling on June 16 and 29, that is, below the zone of 3768.24-3775.82 points, then it makes sense to talk about the termination of the growing trend that has been in effect for more than 5 months.
In this case, the target of the correction will be the area of 3635-3640 points, which is indicated by the deferred width of the current trend.
In addition, it is also worth highlighting the level of 3660 points through which the slow moving average EMA100 passes during the day and the fast moving average ЕМА21 during the weeks.
In general, I look forward to the development of a downward correction with the targets of descending to 3660 and 3635-3640 points, respectively.
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia