In trading, it is very important to be able to recognize the inexpediency of this or that plan in time and find an alternative option. Persistence and unwillingness to admit the obvious is a bad advisor, you may not take my word for it, but time will prove this truth.
So, after two active days of growth – last Friday and this Tuesday, the charts of the leading Russian indices have changed. The Moscow Exchange index returned to the level of 3478.72 points, adding 1.89% at the end of yesterday, the dollar RTS climbed to 1481.85 points, gaining 2.38%.
Now their daily charts, having recovered from the fall, are approaching the upper bounds of their 2-month consolidations. If earlier it seemed to me that the exit from these formations would happen downward, now is the time to consider an alternative option – the option of growth.
It will become relevant when the Moscow Exchange index closes above the zone of 3510.77-3520.66 points. The consolidation height, postponed from the breakout point, indicates the target in the form of 3700-3730 points.
For the RTS index, similar resistance is the area of 1507.06-1508.95 points. On condition of taking which he can head towards 1640-1650 points. It should be noted right away that such a scenario will be possible only if the dollar still comes out of its consolidation, in which it has also been over the past few weeks.
While currencies are relatively calm react to the growth of oil, not reflecting reality, and so it will be, for example, until the players find out what is the verdict of America and Britain. Let me remind you that last week Bloomberg, referring to informed sources, reported that the possibility of imposing restrictions both against large businessmen and on “extreme measures” against the Russian national debt was being discussed.
If additional sanctions are as frivolous as the sanctions on Navalny, then the entire premium for the sanctions risk may dissolve within a few days, giving the US dollar and the euro a sharp dip. The target of the dollar descent may be the area of 70-70.50 rubles, it is relevant when the level of 73.14-73.35 is broken, the euro may return to 84.70-85.50 rubles, since at least on December 14 the mark is 88.41 rubles already gone down.
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia