Today’s review will be a reflection, not a recommendation.
I’ll start with the fact that now, as well as at the beginning of the year, forecasts for the strengthening of the ruble to 70-71 rubles are pouring out of each iron. But neither now nor then did the USDRUB pair fall to the indicated values, and whether the big question will decrease.
I do not associate my expectations with such a strengthening of the national currency, as I came across a very curious technical picture in its weekly format.
After a sharp increase in the period January-March 2020. the pair has fallen into a narrowing consolidation, although its scope still has rather wide boundaries.
The resistance and support lines of the potential “triangle” have two touching points. Now the USDRUB rate is approaching support for the third time, which has been running since June 20. It can be seen with the naked eye that the entry into this formation happened from the bottom up, which gives a very clear expectation of the subsequent exit from it in the same direction.
However, I am getting ahead of myself in my assumptions, and for now my main task is to closely monitor the behavior of the American currency near the current borders. And also the search for reversal signals, because if you look at the dynamics of the RSI oscillator, then you can see a “triangle” figure with a horizontal support level.
What am I leading to? Besides, if the US dollar forms a reversal from the zone of 73.20-73.30 rubles, then it is likely to return to at least 76 rubles – where the local resistance indicates, connecting the highs of April 21. and November 20.
In case of consolidation above 76 rubles, it is worth expanding the growth horizons up to the upper limit of the large consolidation – up to 79.50-79.70 rubles.
Do not forget about time boundaries, the figure I am writing about is drawn on the weekly chart, which means that there is no need to wait for a quick implementation. It is quite possible that if my expectations for the growth of the dollar exchange rate are realized, then it will take at least 2-3 months to move to the upper border.
And although I am convinced that there can be no other option with such a technical picture, it is still worth keeping in mind an alternative option, which will become relevant when the week closes below 72.50 rubles – the March minimum.
Scavo (Ignatenko) Anastasia